EIA raises U.S. oil output estimates, but warns its forecasts face ‘greater-than-usual uncertainty’

The Energy Information Administration on Tuesday said it expects annual U.S. oil production to reach a record next year. The government agency pegged average production at 12.99 million barrels per day in 2023, up 3.1% from its February forecast, according to the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. It also expects this year’s domestic output to average 12.03 million barrels per day, up 0.6% from the previous forecast. “Our forecasts have been subject to greater-than-usual uncertainty,” the EIA said in statement following the report’s release. “This uncertainty has increased significantly following Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine,” it said. The EIA also lifted its 2022 forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude prices to $101.17 a barrel, up 27.5% from the February forecast, and its 2022 Brent crude view to $105.22, up 27%. In Tuesday dealings, April WTI crude oil continued to rally after President Joe Biden announced a U.S. ban on Russian oil imports, with prices up $3.28, or 2.8%, to $122.68 a barrel.

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