BofA sees risks tilting to the upside on its view of a 5%-5.25% terminal fed funds rate by next March

November’s hotter-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report, which showed the U.S. producing 263,000 new jobs, indicates “that there is more work” for the Federal Reserve to do and that labor-market imbalances “may be increasing rather than decreasing,” according to economists at BofA Securities. They said they continue to expect the fed-funds rate target to end up at 5%-5.25% by next March, with “risks to our view tilted to the upside given ongoing labor market momentum.” The imbalances they mentioned stem from “solid employment growth amid stagnant labor supply.” All three major U.S. stock indexes were lower after the jobs report, while the 2-year Treasury rate led an advance in yields.

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