: Traders factor in slightly higher chance of Fed pause in May after March CPI report

Fed funds futures traders priced in a somewhat higher likelihood of a pause by the Federal Reserve next month after Wednesday’s data showed consumer prices rose more slowly for the month of March. The chance of a pause in May, which would leave the fed funds rate between 4.75% and 5%, was seen at 32.8%, up from 27% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point hike was 67.2%. Treasury yields broadly declined after the report, led by the 2-year rate, which fell 10 basis points to 3.941%. The 10-year yield also dropped six basis points to 3.37%.

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