Fed-funds futures traders continue to price in a better-than-90% probability the Federal Reserve will lift the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.5% later this month, while expectations for another quarter-point move in either September or November faded somewhat after a weaker-than-expected rise in June nonfarm payrolls. Fed-funds futures reflect a 92.4% probability of a quarter-point hike on July 26, according to the CME FedWatch tool, little changed from Thursday. The probability of the fed-funds rate rising to 5.5% to 5.75% at the Fed’s September policy meeting fell back to 22.8% Friday morning from 27.5%. For November, the probability was 36.5% versus 40.2% on Thursday.
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