: Wegovy’s success in reducing cardio risk is ‘an important win,’ and a ‘best-case scenario,’ say Wolfe analysts

The success of Novo Nordisk’s NVODK:NOVO.B Wegovy in reducing cardiovascular events in obese adults is an important win for the obesity category with positive implications for that company and rival Eli Lilly & Co. LLY, Wolfe Research said Tuesday.  “The study aimed to show that losing weight (using Wegovy, in this case) would lower things like heart attacks, and the primary endpoint (a reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events, or MACE) was achieved. This has been a very heavily anticipated read-out, and is a clear win not only for NOVO, but also for LLY and the obesity category at large. Results are VERY strong,” analysts led by Dr. Tim Anderson wrote in a note to clients. Wolfe had put the odds of success at 50/50, but consensus odds were higher and the company itself had exuded a lot of confidence. The 20% reduction in cardio events was greater than expected, said the note, and benefit was seen in all three components, of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction and stroke. “This is essentially a best-case scenario,” said the analysts. The trial matters because “treating obesity with prescription drugs embeds various layers of controversy. Many payers, both US and ex-US, have historically not covered obesity drugs because it was felt to be a “lifestyle” issue. Other lifestyle categories – such as smoking cessation and erectile dysfunction – have had similar payer difficulties, meaning patients often have to pay for their medicines out-of-pocket, if they wanted them.”

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