Fed funds futures traders see a better-than-not chance of another quarter-of-a-percentage-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in May, following a surprise weekend announcement of an oil-production cut by several OPEC+ countries. Traders are now placing a 58.3% chance on a 25-basis-point hike in May, up from 48.4% on Friday, that would take the fed funds rate to between 5% and 5.25%. They also see a 41.7% chance of a pause next month. The announcement that more than 1 million barrels of oil a day will be removed from output by May led to a jump in the 1-month bill rate, which soared 19 basis points to 4.68%.
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